World Cup Prediction Markets Top $5.8 Billion

Prediction-market bettors have poured $5.81 billion into 2026 FIFA World Cup contracts across Kalshi and Polymarket, a total large enough to rival regulated sportsbooks and sharpen scrutiny from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

A Handle to Rival Sportsbooks

The bulk of the money sits in Polymarket’s winner contract, which has drawn $4.21 billion in volume on its own. Kalshi’s main World Cup Winner market has taken $1.17 billion more. Together the two venues have built the deepest event-betting pool the sport has ever seen on prediction platforms, and the total keeps climbing as the final looms large.

A single soccer tournament now commands wagering that would have looked fanciful on these platforms a year ago, and it lands squarely in the space licensed books have long treated as their own. Traders can back a champion, fade a favorite, or trade the odds like a stock, all without a state sportsbook account.

France traded near a 39% chance to win on Polymarket and 39.7% on Kalshi before being knocked out by Spain. England sat around 22%, Spain near 21%, and Argentina close to 17% on Polymarket. Spain have advanced to the final and await the winner of England vs Argentina, so there will be some big winners.

How the Two Platforms Differ

Polymarket runs as a decentralized, crypto-settled exchange whose contracts resolve to zero the moment a nation is eliminated. Kalshi, a CFTC-registered venue, settles using data from outlets such as Fox Sports and ESPN and promises payouts within five minutes of an official result. Both let traders exit positions before the final whistle, a flexibility that straight sportsbook bets rarely offer.

That in-play liquidity is part of why volumes have ballooned. A bettor who backed Spain at longer odds can sell into the rally and market makers arbitrage the tiny gaps between the two books. The result is a betting product that behaves more like a financial exchange than a betting slip.

The venues also draw different crowds. Polymarket leans on crypto-native traders moving stablecoins across borders, while Kalshi courts a domestic audience through a licensed, dollar-denominated exchange.

The Regulatory Tension

The scale of the World Cup handle arrives while the legal status of event contracts remains contested. Kalshi argues its sports markets fall under exclusive CFTC jurisdiction, while several state regulators counter that the products function as unlicensed sports betting that skirts state taxes and age limits. New York Attorney General Letitia James sued Coinbase and Gemini in April over the same question, branding their prediction markets illegal gambling, and warning the public to steer clear.

The stakes are concrete for state treasuries. A wager placed as a sports bet in a licensed market generates tax revenue and feeds funding for problem-gambling programs, while the same position taken as an event contract typically does neither. As the World Cup pool swells, that gap between taxed betting and untaxed trading grows harder for state officials to ignore.

For context, prediction platforms cleared more than $50 billion in total volume in June, with Kalshi accounting for roughly two-thirds of it at about $33 billion. I expect the World Cup pool to keep swelling into the final, and every billion it adds strengthens the argument that event contracts have become a mainstream sports betting channel