US bettors could wager as much as $4.33 billion on the 2026 World Cup, according to a projection from Eilers & Krejcik Gaming, the analytics firm which supplies the sportsbook industry. That figure is the top of the range, with a base estimate of $2.82 billion and a low end of $2.32 billion.

Even if it was just the lowest total amount, this would still be almost triple the $900 million to $1 billion Americans bet on the 2022 tournament in Qatar. The reasons for this change are obvious. As well as luring in casual bettors as normal, the World Cup is coming to North America, with the US, Canada and Mexico sharing hosting duties. Even for casual fans, the uptick in attention the tournament will generate is enormous.

Why the Range is So Wide

The gap between $2.3 billion and $4.3 billion comes down to one variable, which is how far the US men’s team goes. The further they progress in the tournament, the more wagers will be placed by home supporters, especially those who tune to back their country, rather than the sport itself.

DraftKings and FanDuel are projected to hoover up about 70% of this wagering between them, which isn’t surprising given they already account for most of the regulated market. The bookmakers will chase the casual crowd hard with welcome offers, because the real prize isn’t the World Cup. It’s the new accounts that stick around after the trophy is lifted.

A Prediction Market Crashes the Party

The World Cup is also a proving ground for the prediction-market crowd muscling into sports. ADI Predictstreet launched an official FIFA World Cup 2026 hub on May 27 through a tie-up with Fanatics Markets, which is the prediction-market arm of the sports-merchandise giant.

Predictstreet got there fast. It picked up a Gibraltar betting-intermediary licence in March, signed a multi-year FIFA partnership in April as the tournament’s official prediction-market partner, and went live in the US weeks later. Its contracts run through Crypto.com’s CFTC-regulated derivatives exchange and reach players in 23 states plus four territories, including the big ones that have no legal sportsbook.

That last point is the whole game. A federally regulated event contract reaches Texas and California, the two largest states with no legal sportsbook, where a traditional book cannot take a soccer bet. This is because the prediction market crowd gets to those players through a derivatives licence rather than a state one.

The World Cup will hand that model its biggest US audience yet, on the back of a tournament millions of casual fans will actually watch. The sportsbooks will be tracking the amount and size of wagers as closely as the scores, because these numbers are the first real read on whether event contracts can pull serious volume off the regulated books. If that happens, it could see a surge in sports betting numbers as bettors are able to legally circumvent state gambling laws to place wagers.