President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has rejected the Nigeria Central Gaming Bill, the proposed federal legislation that would have re-centralised gaming and lottery oversight under a single national framework. Tinubu’s position reaffirms a November 2024 Supreme Court ruling that lotteries and gaming are a residual matter reserved to the states under the Nigerian constitution.

The decision lands while the Federation of State Gaming Regulators of Nigeria (FSGRN), a coalition of 24 state governments, continues to press the National Assembly to withdraw the bill outright. A constitutional fight. The clearest signal yet on which level of government will run the regulatory perimeter going forward.

The constitutional argument

The Supreme Court previously found that the National Lottery Act exceeded federal authority by encroaching on state powers. By rejecting this new bill, Tinubu has signaled that the executive branch will not attempt to legislate around the court’s decision.

This leaves the National Lottery Regulatory Commission (NLRC) in a state of legal limbo, as some experts argue that the body has lost all standing, while others argue that it still retains oversight during the transition to state-led frameworks.

The ambiguity is the most consequential single issue for operators currently licensed under the federal regime.

FSGRN and the subnational framework

The FSGRN’s alternative framework is the Subnational Reciprocity Licensing Framework, which lets operators obtain a single state licence and operate across all FSGRN-member states under a mutual-recognition arrangement. The coalition has 24 state members. Operators that already hold an NLRC licence have been offered a fee-waiver onramp into the framework, which the FSGRN signals as a structural off-ramp from the federal regime.

The practical effect is that an operator now has two viable licensing paths: stay federal through whatever transitional NLRC arrangement holds, or transition into the FSGRN subnational framework via any one member state. The choice carries real operational consequences on advertising, banking, and player-protection compliance, with the trajectory of state-level enforcement likely to harden as the FSGRN framework matures.

Market Impact: $2 Billion at Stake

The timing of this regulatory shift is critical. Driven by the maturation of digital payment giants like OPay and Flutterwave, Nigeria’s sports-wagering population has surged to over 60 million active users.

With annual revenues projected to exceed $2 billion in 2026, the question of who collects taxes and enforces Anti-Money Laundering (AML) compliance is no longer academic, but is now an economic priority. Tinubu’s rejection is the clearest signal yet that the era of national gaming oversight is ending in favor of state-level enforcement.

What to watch next

Three threads define the next phase. First, whether the National Assembly formally withdraws the Central Gaming Bill or attempts a redrafted federal alternative. Second, the velocity of FSGRN member-state buy-in to the Subnational Reciprocity Framework. Third, the resolution of the NLRC’s transitional status, which determines whether operators currently holding federal licences face a hard transition window or a managed run-off. Three moving pieces. One national perimeter to settle.