Lula Moves to End Brazil’s Bets Nine Days Before the Election

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is set to sign a high-stakes Provisional Measure (Medida Provisória – MP) in São Paulo targeting Brazil’s regulated online gambling sector. Scheduled for formal announcement at the Ministry of Finance’s regional office, the executive action arrives nine days prior to the first round of the 2026 presidential election on October 4.

That’s a big jump. Until Wednesday, the likelier option inside the government was the one behind the draft decree reported earlier this month, which would end online casino games and restrict betting ads. Bloomberg reported early Friday, citing two people with knowledge of the matter, that Lula will sign two provisional measures, one banning online betting and another to renegotiate individual debts.

Under Article 62 of the Brazilian Constitution, a Provisional Measure carries immediate force of law upon publication in the Diário Oficial da União. However, the measure requires formal ratification by the National Congress within 120 days to avoid expiration.

Lula Says the Decision Is Made

Lula has been saying it at rallies all week. At a campaign event in Maceió on Thursday night he told the crowd, “By God in heaven, I’m going to end the bets,” Exame reported. A day earlier, at an event with artists in Rio de Janeiro, he said, “This is not a war, it is a decision,” and added that he would take “immense pleasure” in ending them.

He set himself this test two years ago. In an October 2024 interview with Rádio Metrópole, he described regulation as a trial run. “If regulation works, the problem is solved. If it doesn’t, I’ll end it,” he said at the time.

The Scope Was Still Moving on Thursday

What the text actually bans was still being argued the day before the signing. Aides told O Globo the announcement was expected to go harder, banning online casinos and fixed-odds betting, the legal category for bets on real events such as football matches. One aide cautioned that the content wasn’t fully closed and that meetings would run into Friday.

Government sources told Exame that two draft measures are ready and that Lula would only settle the scope on Friday itself, with a broad ban covering both casino games and sports betting the most likely outcome. A Provisional Measure takes effect on publication but still needs Congress, and it’s valid for 60 days, extendable once for another 60.

Football Clubs Lost Their Appeal

The clubs tried to head this off. A joint letter titled “The end of Brazilian football” was signed by Série A clubs including Flamengo, Corinthians, Palmeiras, São Paulo, Santos, Botafogo, Fluminense and Vasco, along with the São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro football federations. They argued that betting money has become one of the sport’s main sources of revenue.

Lula answered them in Florianópolis on September 19. “Football cannot expect to survive at the expense of poor people, who already support the team, go to the stadium, and still spend what little they have betting. That is not a sustainable economic model,” Lula stated.

Operators Say They’ll Go to Court

The licensed industry published a manifesto called “We bet on Brazil,” pointing out that Law 14,790 of 2023 regulated the sector and that companies paid license fees to set up. “Not gambling doesn’t exist. Banning won’t protect society. Legal demand migrates to illegal sites,” it reads. Betting companies have said they will go to court if the ban is carried out.

The Money and the Votes

The Treasury has a lot riding on this. The federal government collected R$9.91 billion in taxes from betting companies between January and August 2026, according to Federal Revenue Service data cited by Exame. The money also moves over Pix, and the Central Bank estimated that about 24 million people sent at least one Pix transfer to betting and gaming firms in 2024.

The government had already been squeezing the payment side. On September 14 the Finance Ministry’s Secretariat of Prizes and Betting published an ordinance that lets it order banks to block accounts and new transactions linked to unlicensed operators. Casino-style games, which Lula was first advised to target on their own, now make up about 80% of betting company revenue.

A Ban That Polls Well

The political viability of the measure is supported by public opinion polling ahead of the October 4 election. An Atlas/Bloomberg poll released on September 23 found 75% of Brazilians support a ban, with 17% against. Datafolha has Lula on 47% against 45% for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party in a runoff simulation, a technical tie.

Flávio has taken a narrower line. He says “online casino has to end,” but he wants to keep sports betting on real matches because he thinks it can be controlled.

Lula signed the law that regulated the bets at the end of 2023. He is now set to sign the measure meant to end them.